Leaders Look Beyond the Horizon

In the business world, there is no room for complacency. Executives must always be looking years ahead, preparing for what's beyond the horizon. The future is full of potential volatility, and it's crucial to plan for possible outcomes. Survival in today's business climate often depends on forecasting trends and being agile enough to respond quickly to changes in the business environment.

It can not easy to stay ahead of the curve, but it's essential we try.   To help me look ahead, I recently attended an online presentation by a reputable economic forecasting firm. First and foremost their research indicates that one year from now, most of the volatility in the business environment will settle down to a more normal state. Not the same state as the past, but stable. They predict by the middle of 2023 inflation will be at an annual rate of 4%, supply chain issues will return to normal, and the ‘great resignation’ trend will be over, crude oil prices will settle down to about $80/barrel.   The presenter had two issues of concern in the short term: first is that consumers are using savings to purchase items. This trend is unsustainable. The second issue is a watch item. The fed interest rate increase will be high for July and possibly August. If the feds start reducing their interest rate hikes, the economy will recover nicely.   Here are some more specific points from this presentation:   B2C (business to consumer) companies will continue to have a tough time for the remainder of this year. Supply chain and talent issues will settle down towards the end of the year and into the next.   B2B (business to business) is a little more interesting. Right now, most manufacturing companies are booked solid through the end of the year, and some are booked into the next. However, starting in early 2023 the supply chain issues will be resolved, and the market will change. Availability will no longer be the deciding criteria for purchasing. Businesses will shop around based on other factors. The presenter hinted that price sensitivity and availability would only be a small part of the new purchasing decisions.   How do B2B companies prepare now for the changes in 2023? Here are a few things to ask: 

• Do you have confidence in how the business operates?
• Is your entire organization easy to work with?
• How is your company handling management and process transparency, are they aligned and synchronized?
• Are your building strategic agility and capability in the organization?
• Are your ‘best practices ’customized to the organization’s needs?
• Are you actively trying to create a shared understanding in your organization while breaking down barriers between groups?

Addressing these and other issues will help you gain confidence that your organization is prepared to meet the challenges of the future.